Predicting the Future

"If you predict for a living you have to predict often." 

--Danish Physicist and Nobel Prize Winner, Niels Bohr

Have you ever thought of yourself as a futurist?

Predicting the future is a lucrative profession even though the track record for peering beyond tomorrow is inconsistent at best.  Does anyone ever follow-up on predictions anyway?

PREDICTING IS HARD

Someone once asked futurist Alvin Toffler (of Future Shock and The Third Wave fame) why several of his predictions failed to materialize.  Toffler's response was direct:  "I often underestimated the power of the status quo."

You could count on one hand the number of individuals who credibly predicted the recent "great recession." 

"It is a globally accepted fact that top world governments, central banks, economists, investment bankers and financial journalists were caught off guard by the financial crisis and the ensuing economic crisis of 2008-2009," according to the Economic Predictions website.

THE IBM LIST

IBM recently issued its annual list of five predictions about the future of technology.   Bernie Meyerson, who does the technology forecast, said something worth noting when releasing the list.  "To predict the next five years you have to have a deep understand of the last 50."   (This principle may hold true even for start-ups who are seeking to introduce innovative products and services).

One IBM prediction in particular caught our attention:

• There will be no more passwords as increasingly powerful phones and sensors will store your personal biometric information enabling machines to automatically know who you say you are

We can only hope.

SEIZING THE DAY

What about your organization?

1. The best way to predict the future is invent it. 

This insight comes from Alan Kay, a scientist at Apple, Inc., whose charter is to pursue far-out ideas.  "This is a century in which you can be pro-active, not reactive about the future."   While the future is not risk free it's possible to calculate risks and minimize the downside of new ventures.

Why not start with the "what if" question?

2. Learn to connect the dots.

Take time to look around to see what's already underway.  The old idea of predicting from extrapolation, or the creation of new data points, is filled with uncertainty. 

New realities are likely in some stage of formation for most industries but are overlooked in the press of time.  Leadership tends to become aware of disruptions or opportunities when it's too late to take advantage of them.

3. Pay cautious attention to feedback.

Listening to employees, customers, and prospective customers is important when thinking about the future.  Be mindful that individuals sometimes want to be heard more than heeded.  Knowing the difference comes with experience, judgment, and being a good listener. 

Steve Jobs didn't do focus groups because participants were not likely to have any frame of reference for the products Apple was thinking about developing. 

Nonetheless feedback is important. But filtering what is heard through the company's mission, values, and capabilities is a reliable way of reaching decisions on what to do with new information and insights.

4. Avoid the hype. 

This may be the hardest thing on the list to do.  There is a lot of "noise" coming from different directions requiring a fairly disciplined leader or manager to know what's worth pursuing and what's best left alone.

5. Stay flexible. 

"Flexibility" could be a core value of every one's company.  Being able to adapt along the way is essential for an enduring future.

There is always the possibility of unforeseen problems with product launches, competitive forces, or new government regulations being imposed.  The ability to adjust to circumstances without having to toss your basic strategy is why success is more of a zig-zag than a straight line.

THINKING AHEAD

What's on your list of personal and corporate predictions for 2012 or beyond? 

What merits undivided attention? What can come off the radar?

What's the one thing in the coming year, that if properly understood and successfully implemented, could be your next profitable idea?

As we learned at the beginning of this post it's okay to revise predictions.  After all, this is what professional futurists do to stay in business.  As the late British philosopher Carveth Read once said, "it is better to be vaguely right, than exactly wrong."


Happy New Year!


www.strategist.com

(C) Bredholt & Co.

More Than A Pollster

The first time I met George Gallup Jr., who passed away November 21, 2011 at the age of 81, was in February of 1983.  I operated a research business at the time and wanted to know if there was any chance of learning from or even working with the Gallup Organization. 

It sounds like a stretch but this is how we came to know some of the mentors in our life--by reaching out to people we admire.  The lesson I have learned is to let the other person say, "no."

After several attempts to get through by phone, Marie Swirsky, George's executive assistant, suggested an alternative.  Marie asked us to put our introduction on a cassette (no CDs in the early 80s), and the purpose for meeting with George, and she would put the tape in his briefcase so he could listen to it over a weekend.

The tape arrived at the Gallup offices in Princeton, New Jersey on a Friday.  The following Monday I received a call from Marie to set up a meeting in Princeton at my convenience.

It was the beginning of a 21 year professional relationship with George and a friendship that extended until last week.

Of all the trips to Princeton in the ensuing years the most memorable was the time George took me to meet his mother.  It was a warm gesture that became quite an afternoon.  As it turns out Mrs. Gallup played the piano, George played the trumpet and I play the drums.  All three instruments were in the Gallup house so George suggested we have a "jam" session.  Which we did.

How special that time proved to be.

Most of what I learned from George is what I saw in his life.  His curiosity.  The intellect.  Keen insights.  Ethics.  Compassion for others.  A willingness to share what he knew, not keeping it to himself.  Making time to invest in someone like myself.

Conversations in his office, over lunch, and in our home are memorable. 

Some things worth noting about a man who was more than a pollster:

• He paid attention when you were talking.  The first thing George did was get out his notepad and start writing things down for future reference.  George focused on the points you were trying to make.  In an age of permanent distractions and inattention in meetings, his disciplined approach to interpersonal communication was refreshing.   

• He chose words carefully.  George's counsel was inside the conversation requiring one to be a good listener.  Like the time he was visiting and getting ready to go to the airport.  He said, "You first have to learn to be good.  Then learn to be fast."  The order was right because George was speaking from experience.  Nearly 25 years later I don't remember the context in which this wisdom was passed along but I recall those specific words as though they were spoken this morning.

• He knew the relationship between information and ideas.  It wasn't just a matter of conducting surveys.  Adding to data bases doesn't accomplish much.  The real issue was knowing how to act on the findings.  As good as the knowledge may be it is secondary in value to taking the right action, whether personal or corporate.  

• He was a person of great faith.  The choices were being an Episcopal priest, which he considered at one time, or a pollster. However the greater calling was living a life of faith.  One of George's favorite questions in religious surveys was, "How have you put your faith into action in the past seven days?"

I am grateful for the privilege of knowing George Gallup, Jr.--and I am thankful to Marie Swirsky for putting that cassette tape in his briefcase many years ago.


(C) Bredholt & Co.

Steve Jobs and Buzz Lightyear--BFF

Our grandsons visited some time ago when the youngest of two brothers, Brody Schriver, had a strong attachment to Buzz Lightyear, one of the characters from the Pixar movie, Toy Story.  

We took the boys to lunch one day and upon arriving home, discovered Buzz was missing. 

Unable to deal with the heartbreak I went back to the restaurant to see, if by chance, Buzz was still there.  The staff at the restaurant went so far as to move the booth where we had been seated an hour or so earlier just to be sure the toy wasn't lodged between the seat and the wall.  Another search of the car came up empty as well.

Rather than face a tearful grandson with empty hands, I stopped by a store and purchased a second Buzz Lightyear because that's what grandfathers do. (As it turned out the first Buzz was on the back porch all along).

This incident came to mind while reading backstories to the life of Steve Jobs, including successes at critical moments allowing him to keep going with his creative pursuits.   

What does this have to do with Buzz Lightyear, Woody, and the other characters in Toy Story?  While Apple and NeXT get a lot of attention, Pixar Animation, purchased by Jobs in 1986, put new life into this American icon.

As recounted by Lev Grossman in TIME, Steve Jobs netted almost $260 million when Apple went public in 1980.  However, this financial success was followed by nearly 18 years without producing a successful product.  

"It was Buzz Lightyear who saved Jobs' career: after eating money for a decade, Pixar finally produced Toy Story in 1995.  It took in $30 million on its first weekend, and a week later Pixar went public.  Jobs' shares were worth $1.2 billion," according to Grossman.

Almost 60 years earlier Walt Disney was looking to expand beyond short subjects to features.  He made a big bet on his company's future taking three years to produce Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs which premiered in 1937.  

Sometimes referred to as "Disney's Folly," Snow White cost approximately $1.5 million forcing Walt Disney to mortgage his house to finance the film's production.

In its original release, Snow White grossed $3.5 million in the United States and Canada.  Walt Disney received a full-size Oscar and seven miniature ones presented to him by Shirley Temple at the Academy Awards.  This was a huge success making it possible for Disney studios to move into a higher realm of creativity and production. 

There are numerous articles comparing Steve Jobs to Thomas Edison and other inventors.  A better comparison may be with Walt Disney.  Both found a way to combine consistent quality with innovation in order to make their products stand out from the competition. 

It's fitting that Jobs, upon completion of the $7.4 billion acquisition of Pixar by Walt Disney Company in 2006, would join the company's board of directors and become Disney's largest shareholder.   

What are some lessons to take away from the life and career of Steve Jobs?

What does a wider audience learn in his death that it couldn't know, by design, in his life?  I am thinking now about his family; growing into the role of a corporate leader; his mercurial management style; all the people decisions; the failures and rejections; and a sense of mortality. 

What could you "Apple-ize" (simplify) about your life and business?

What was the driving force when developing Apple products such as the IPod, IPhone, and IPad? 

What is at the heart of Pixar's success? (See link to interview below)

What causes our grandchildren (and yours) to make an emotional connection with a character like Buzz Lightyear?   The answer to this last question is simple.  It's because Steve Jobs, like Walt Disney, knew young minds (like older ones) are wired for a good story.

We close with some links to Steve Jobs you may not have seen or read:

• Click on this link to watch an interview from 1996 with Charlie Rose that includes John Lasseter, who now runs Pixar and Disney Animation.   This archived exchange allows Steve Jobs to speak for himself.
• Here is the text of the eulogy given by his sister, novelist Mona Simpson, at the memorial service in the church on the campus of Stanford University.
• And finally, this is a video of Apple's tribute to Steve.

  
(C)  Bredholt & Co.

Chiseling of a Leader

Mount Rushmore National Memorial, in the Black Hills of South Dakota, celebrates its 70th anniversary on 31 October 2011.   It took the American-born sculptor, Gutzon Borglum, son of Danish immigrants, fourteen years to complete this monumental task. 

While he is also responsible for the carving on the side of Stone Mountain, near Atlanta, Georgia, the head of Abraham Lincoln, which sits in the Capitol Rotunda in Washington, D.C., and the North Carolina monument at the Gettysburg battlefield, Borglum's most notable work is Mount Rushmore. 

George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Teddy Roosevelt, and Abraham Lincoln are displayed in 60-foot granite heads carved mostly by dynamite.

When viewing this edifice I wonder if these leaders were born or made?  Or, was this select group of Americans chiseled over a lifetime?

On the way through life have you ever stopped to think about the importance of strong character and how it develops?  Does it happen by being battle-tested in various assignments?  From life's experiences?  Is a crisis the way in which true character forms?  Or is it from a combination of success and failure?  What is the role of disappointment or rejection?  

And how do you know who anyone is in an age of self-constructed digital images? 

Lincoln once observed that giving someone power was the best way to find out who they really are.

How long did it take Washington, Jefferson, Roosevelt, and Lincoln to develop as leaders?  Longer than the decade and-a-half it took Gutzon Borglum to finish sculpting their faces on the side of a mountain.

The outsize display of four great men begs another question.  Why is so much attention given to formal leadership programs and so little to the nonformal, character-building experiences, where people spend the vast majority of their time?

What are the experiences that contribute to shaping and influencing leaders?

Inside organizational life five are worth noting:

• Start something from scratch
• Fix or turnaround something
• Enlarge your responsibility
• Take on special projects
• Endure hardships

It's not enough to have these experiences.  It's what you take away from them that makes this kind of chiseling worthwhile.  

If you are persevering through the economic crisis, what, if anything, will your management team take away from a time of testing and hardship?    

We tend to lose our memory as things improve which explains why the mistakes of the past will likely be repeated in the future. 

All four presidents on Mount Rushmore probably engaged at some point with the experiences on the above list from the Center for Creative Leadership.  It wasn't that they went through difficult times.  Many do.  It was how they did so that made a difference in the outcomes.

Something to be mindful of throughout your career is the value of conversations.  Some will be long, more will be brief.  Under the right circumstances these exchanges can be a source of insights which are essential to learning, growing and changing. 

Our perspective can be limited.  Listening to others, and viewing things through a different lens, has the potential to clarify vision and improve our options for taking the next steps.

Coaching is quite popular with many--and it has its place.  However, the right mentors coming in and out of your life, along with trusted friendships, may be more important in the longer term.   

Does it feel as though you are currently being chiseled, even with what seems like dynamite?

If so, then you are likely enrolled in the same leadership development program as the four who grace Mount Rushmore. 




(C)  Bredholt & Co.



  

Building a Team

The word "team" is becoming a prominent part of the language and culture of many organizations. Buildings that were once home offices are now referred to as "team headquarters." The Team Disney building in Orlando, Florida comes to mind.

Much has been made over the past decade as to the importance of teams and team building and it’s having a noticeable affect on corporate life.  Like any management idea that comes along (vision, for example), it’s possible to attach ourselves to a word and miss the core concept.

Or simply take a good idea too far.

With all the talk about "teams" we are reminded of something former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher once said on a different subject.  She offered that if you had to say you were a "lady" too often, you probably weren't.  (This was before being given the title, Lady Thatcher).

We are beginning to think the same thing about leaders who keep talking about getting their people "on the team." In fact, there tends to be more said about the team than the results the team is expected to achieve.

A practical lesson from the book, The Wisdom of Teams, is that leaders foster team performance best by building a strong performance ethic rather than by establishing a "team promoting" environment alone.

"Biases toward individualism exist," says Jon Katzenbach, one of the authors, "but need not get in the way of team performance." He goes on to say that team and individual are two subjects on the opposite ends of a continuum.

It’s essential to provide balance so that the situation is well served by either a person or a group. Believe it or not, sometimes a single person is just what circumstances call for since the task determines the form.

Those who have played on a well-disciplined athletic team know the better coaches use the word "team" carefully. They strive to develop the team by growing individuals focused on a common goal. 

Before the era of celebrity athletics, now at practically all levels of participation, it was a great fan experience to watch a well-coached team perform.  It still is even as most sports are being overtaken by the driving forces of profit and loss.

As in sports a successfully executed idea or plan in organizational life is a thing to behold.

Our observation is that some, not all, may be using "team" in a disciplinary fashion versus a discipline that is required to achieve a common purpose and set of goals. When referring to employee attitudes and behavior supervisors often refer to work associates as either being a "team player" or not.

Based on whose set of rules?  I think most employees know.

Rather than a boss--worker arrangement, Katzenbach notes that teams really come into being when individuals hold themselves mutually accountable.

It might be helpful to review your communication to see how much the "t" word is being used (or overused).  And is it possible, through some form of assessment, to determine if you and others are developing individual strengths as well as building a well-balanced team?

Remember, the best teams know they are. If you have to say it too much, you probably aren't.


(C)  Bredholt & Co. 

Hidden in Plain View

Nearly every successful business or nonprofit which endures over time begins with a simple yet profound idea.

Such is the case of Charles Edward Merrill, who in 1914, founded what is now known as Merrill Lynch. According to historical sources, Merrill was one of the first New York stockbrokers to realize the importance of selling stocks and bonds to small investors by furnishing for them simple, conservative and sound financial advice.

Looking to grow his brokerage business, he decides to locate offices closer to potential customers west of New York's Hudson River.

Summarizing Merrill's core idea, he took Wall Street to Main Street.

And did so by looking for external opportunities in an expanding country in the early part of the 20th century.  A lesson here is that change is what you choose to make of it.  What seemed hidden to others in the financial industry, a rising USA middle class, became obvious to Merrill. 

His death in 1956 prompted a tribute in the New York Times concerning his "provocative ideas about how to interest the little and often Wall Street-shy man in acquiring a stake in his country's economy. Mr. Merrill was a frequent and firm spokesman for the importance of a free capital market in this nation of free enterprise."

After nearly going out of business during the recent "great recession," Merrill Lynch is now the wealth management division of Bank of America. With over 15,000 financial advisors and $2.2 trillion in client assets it is the world's largest brokerage.

In the late 1990's André Briend, a French pediatric nutritionist, walks into the kitchen of his home one morning where the children are eating breakfast. On the table is a jar of the chocolate spread, Nutella.

For some time Briend and an host of others had been looking for practical solutions to the problem of malnutrition, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Milk spoils. Water is often contaminated. A mother leaving her children to find food in other villages poses safety problems for those left behind.

What to do?

For Briend, the answer to these challenges could be in the Nutella sitting on the table, in plain view. From this "aha" moment, watching his kids eat breakfast, would come a product with a funny name, Plumpy’nut.

Plumpy’nut consists of a peanut-based paste, with sugar, vegetable fat and skimmed milk powder, enriched with vitamins and minerals. It is available in 92g foil wrappers which provide 500 calories. The product can be used for up to 24 months after the date of manufacture without refrigeration.

As a ready-to-use food, Plumpy’nut requires no preparation, no dilution in water prior to use, no cooking, and it can be consumed direct from the wrapper. A daily dose cost $1 and is manufactured in several African countries including Niger, Mozambique and Malawi. It is also being produced in Rhode Island under the name, Edesia Global Nutrition Solutions.

From the manufacturer, Nutriset, we learn that the product can be used at home without any preparation, under the supervision of the mother or another member of the family. Plumpy’nut makes it possible to treat the majority of children suffering from severe acute malnutrition without them needing to be hospitalized. More malnourished children can be treated with regularity thereby improving the recovery rate.

In 2005 Doctors Without Borders distributed Plumpy’nut to 60,000 children with severe acute malnutrition during famine in Niger. Ninety-percent completely recovered and only 3 percent died. Unfortunately, according to the United Nations, the product reaches only 10 to 15 percent of those who need it due to logistics and budgets.

Where are you looking for opportunities? Customers? Non-customers? Business networks? Your employees?  Are you giving time to new ideas?  Or improving current operations?  Where could you do good and do well at the same time?

Perhaps the next profitable idea is just over the river or hidden in plain view.


(C) Bredholt & Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

Missing Pieces

Is it possible that business has fewer of the right kind of leaders today than it did nearly 20 years ago? I am referring to those individuals who exhibit a good balance of experience, personal depth, emotional strength and administrative discipline.

If this may be true, why?

One reason could be too much focus on technique and not enough on the deliberate practice of the discipline that leadership really is. Being a leader is meaningful but hard work no matter the situation or size of the organization.

When is the last time you attended a conference on working hard?

Another possible answer to our original question lies in the failure of leaders to learn from their experiences. Someone once said that those who are not open to counsel can’t be helped. Often good development programs are offset when individual responsibility to keep learning disappears.

The person most responsible for development is the leader, not the educator or trainer.

Is there hope for this situation?

Are there other things needing attention when it comes to chiseling one’s character traits as a leader? What’s missing that often undermines well-intended people?

The first missing piece tends to be…

• Credibility

It’s difficult if not impossible for people to follow someone they don’t believe in.

You have to offer reasonable grounds for being believed if you are in your first major assignment or a seasoned executive. Relationships are built on trust. Call it authenticity or transparency if you like. But substance is a must.

Are people sometimes misled by their leaders?

Too often this is a reality. Yet as someone once famously said, “you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.” Weakness in character comes out at some point. This type of behavior can do a great deal of damage until it’s discovered and the person either gets helped or is removed.

Maybe a coach is what you need. Timely interventions by trusted individuals may be more important than formal reviews separated by long intervals. Few, however, change their behavior with coaching alone. It takes feedback, self discipline and practice with colleagues to put changes in place.  Even then it is an uphill climb.

One way to understand credibility is to think about what impresses you in a leader. Matching words with deeds is very important no matter where on the planet you happen to be. Why does this type of behavior stand out? Because so few engage in it.

Measure your words. Promise less. Deliver more

The second missing piece is…

• Communication

I am referring here to interpersonal or social communication, not necessarily oratory or elocution. Most of a leader’s communication is one-on-one or small groups. Businesses are social systems. An overlooked tool is conversation.

The writer, Alan Barker, put it this way:

“Conversation is your primary management tool. It’s how you build relationships with colleagues and others. It's how you come to understand what people think and how they feel. Conversation is the way you influence others and are influenced by them. It’s how you solve problems, cooperate with others and create new opportunities.”

This is good advice.

Two-thirds of any conversation is listening and listening is hard work.

Why?

While someone else is talking we often keep our brain in gear waiting for just the right time to speak again. By doing this we hear little the other person has to say. Many gain leadership positions in spite of being poor listeners. How this happens is a mystery.  When is the last time you really paid attention to staff? Customers? Board members?

Is two-way communication a missing piece? Then practice the habit of asking good questions. Find out what interests the other person.  It’s one thing to know about your people. It’s another to know your people.  Understanding this difference improves and strengthens relationships.

The final missing piece is…

• Cooperation

The buzzword is "collaboration" but colleagues value someone who is simply "cooperative" in attitude and behavior. 

There are things you can do on your own such as sharpen a pencil or take out the trash.   If you want to move a grand piano on a stage Steinway recommends at least one person be assigned to each leg with rollers.

If you are trying to build a great company it’s going to take enough of the right people laboring together to achieve common goals. Even though succeeding generations appear to have a collaborative ethos this does not remove the need for someone to lead, direct and follow-up. It does, however, change the look of the organization from leadership at the top to leadership throughout.

Are you comfortable with an organization filled with strong and gifted leaders?

While the task determines the form of collaboration here is a practical way to begin. Start by asking people what you can do to help them. Learn to cooperate with others, first.  Then see if there is a difference when asking for their help in getting something done on your list.

It takes practice and discipline but these missing pieces, and others you might identify, can be placed in your life and work.

There’s hope after all.

 
(C) 2011 Bredholt & Co. Inc. All rights reserved.